DVD Dual Layer . . . . Future?

[lugesm]

I wonder if DVD dual layer will ever catch on.

1. Newer copy programs like AnyDVD and CloneDVD provide compression such that good quality movies can be copied onto a single DVD-R today.

2. BlueRay is just around the corner and will provide 25GB storage capability.

3. The dual layer media are certain to be MUCH more expensive than, say Ritek DVD-R.

4. The recording process for dual layer is more complex and, therefore, more prone to failure.

I predict that these will go the way of the Sony high-capacity floppy disks (20MB) which were briefly introduced and failed in the marketplace.

Now, shoot me full of holes if my theory is all wet.

[gh0sth@cker]

It will definately catch on.

It requires copacious amounts of time and effort to get the perfect compression. Many people hate using transcoders and will only accept CCE re-ecodoes which takes on average >24hours and can be quite complex.

Bluray isn't here yet and there seems to be no release date. DL is here, and is being sold very very cheaply. Cheaper than some SL drives.

Of course the media is expensive now due to the high demand and small supply. It'll soon even itself out like all media pricing does.

From what I know the burning process is pretty simple. Even some SL drives are currently capable of doing it (NEC). It's just the media that was the difficult part to master. They have spent a lot of time and money researching the disks and I'm sure they are approaching good reliability.

I will definately be switching to DL when prices drops and speeds hops.

[lugesm]

Gosthacker -

You are obviously more experienced than I, so I must bow to your judgment . . . . temporarily. Nevertheless, I believe we will see an interesting horse race between DL and BlueRay.

Because of the huge market potential, one would suspect that BlueRay research and development will receive abundant resources, both engineers and money. A professional BlueRay recorder is already available in Japan, so a consumer version is a likely possibility in the near future.

The deciding factor will probably lie in the relative cost and availability of BlueRay media versus DL media. Both technologies are a step UP in complexity, and media costs for both will be initially high.