DVD Dual Layer . . . . Future?

[lugesm]

I wonder if DVD dual layer will ever catch on.

1. Newer copy programs like AnyDVD and CloneDVD provide compression such that good quality movies can be copied onto a single DVD-R today.

2. BlueRay is just around the corner and will provide 25GB storage capability.

3. The dual layer media are certain to be MUCH more expensive than, say Ritek DVD-R.

4. The recording process for dual layer is more complex and, therefore, more prone to failure.

I predict that these will go the way of the Sony high-capacity floppy disks (20MB) which were briefly introduced and failed in the marketplace.

Now, shoot me full of holes if my theory is all wet.