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Yes the agreement between Rockstar and Sony ends in 2004 but GTA will be out for xbox in 2003. In order for that to happen both compaines have to sit down and discuss a new agreement, that's how Sony has its finger in the pie.
As for the Japanese Market, it's foolish to neglect them. They are more adamant gamers than most give them credit for and it's a huge wealth of market to who ever can get them. The reason M$ does so poorly is how they just try to go in and take over businesses over there like they did here. It's a poor strategy dealing with people that pride themselves on thier businesses and work ethic.
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